Mariam Mariam
It was the playwright, T.S. Elliot, who once remarked, in respect to the nature of power, that “the strongman strongly, the weak man by caprice, each one has the same ambition; to seize power and to hold it”. The past week in Nigeria, in my opinion, offers remarkable lessons about the functions and dysfunctionalities of the power process; they teach us very elementary lessons, to help us understand the ways our country is run. You might want to also note, that what history has taught, is that governance is often carried out with just a little amount of wisdom!
Over the weekend, President Umaru Yar’adua returned to Nigeria, after a troubling absence of about three weeks; weeks that led to speculations about what might have happened to the man. At the base of the speculations, was the deep chasm, between official assurances and public perception. This was something we discussed on this page last week. It was pitiable to see top officials of government he through their teeth, and when every Nigerian knew that the president was indisposed, they kept to the very ridiculous line, that he was in the holy land attending only to spiritual matter. Nobody was fooled, and since nature itself abhors a vacuum, Nigerians sought for whatever lead they could get, including the most outlandish.
It took the deepening of worry and the build up of a fightening scenario, for John Odey, the regime’s information Minister, to make a rather elliptical reference to the president’s state of health. It was a tacit admission of the bare faced lies of the previous weeks and the realization, that they are leading the nation down the dangerous road of complete loss of faith in the government, by the people of Nigeria. The regime did not learn a lesson from the earlier episode a few months earlier, by tsill desperately trying to shroud in secrecy, the itinerary and mission of the president. They forget just how open the world has become, its interdependence and the surfeit of news and informatione everywhere. There is no hiding place for those used to the mafia-style hoarding of information and its unconscionable manifpulation. The Ojo Maduekwe approach is thoroughly discredidted and that is why it busted in their faces, like soap bubble!
If the problem of the lies they told about Malam Yar’adua’s sojourn in Saudi Arabia, presented set of Challenges, the management of his re-appearance presented a completely different set. Of course, there was still the mystery associated with the fact that not a single picture of the man’s arrival filtered into the medica, there were no video clips on television; not a single government dignitary could be quoted as having seen the president, wither on his feet or lying ina stretcher as the case might be. Again, that led to the rumout; about his relocation away from Aso Villa and related tales.
It is at this juncture, that we saw the president play his hand. By re-appearing on Monday, Malam Yar’adua had to show that he was not only in charge, he needed to take steps which deflected minds away from his health to actions he took; the decoration of the military chiefs presented a man, who clearly was convalescing from a stint of hospitalization; but at least the fact was that he was on his feet and that in itself, was reassuring for a nation that had been kept on tenterhooks for about three weeks. But Yar’adaua was not done; he sacked his powerful secretary to government, Ambassador Babagana Kingibe. Now, that was the ruthlessly effective politician in Malam Yar’adua that came to the fore! Kingibe seemed to have lost favour in the past couple of months by all accounts, and seemed to have been living on borrow time; but Yar’adua needed to make a grand gesture and that he did, with the sack of his SGF, who had been by many as a central player in the lack luster regime. But we shall come back to the intrigues later.
Flash back to Yar’adua’s years as governor of Katsina state; he was similarly dogged by his ill-health, and unlike now when Nigerians could monitor his movement and raise questions; as governor of his state, Umaru Yar’adua went away on long stints seeking remedy for his ailments. It was in the course of one of those trips, that his erstwhile deputy, Tukur Jikamshi was said to have began nursing ambitions of supplanting his ailing boss. Umaru Yar’adua brought out the long knife and decapitated the man’s ambitions. Those who see a weakling that is dogged by ill health always forget the ruthless, if well concealed streak, in Umaru Yar’adua. But politicians in Katsina who either crossed his way or he felt uncomfortable with, were dealt with, and the list is long: Alhaji Musa Musawa, the pioneer chairman of the PDP in the state; his successor, Alhaji Abu Ibrahim and Engineer Nura Khalil. y Yar’adua can also stealthily operate like a black mamba. He lures his prey into a false sense of security only to strike and end up depositing deadly dosage of venom. That was what he did to former Speaker, Alhaji Aminu Bello Masari. Masari as the number four citizen of the country always showed tremendous respect for his governor, Umaru Yar’adua, as he systematically built a powerful political network in Katsina, to eventually run for the office of governor. But Umaru Yar’adua took this week against Babagana Kingibe, was almost a copy of his action to assert his supremacy in Katsina a few years ago. One of the hard realities of politics is that there are always factions tendencies and cliques within the political system. This tendency heightens, when the head of the political system appears to have lost control, becomes incapacitated or betrays the signs of incapacitation. Loyalties at the best of times can be merely skin deep; and since everybody is in politics for power, an invalid president opens up his flanks for the quickening of the process of cliques formation.
According to all accounts, one of the many reasons why Malam Yar’adua dropped Kingibe, was that the SGF was positioning himself to become vice president to the dour Goodluck Jonathan if Umaru Yar’adua was to expire; or even become the candidate of the PDP, if the Supreme Court aqnnuls the massively rigged elections that brought the regime to power in 2007 (if you want to get a useful account of the struggle of tendencies and cliques within an African political setting, please read Sembene Ousame’s THE LAST OF THE EMPIRES).
I think that Malam Umaru Yar’adua understands that his health has directly been responsible for the manner of cliwues’ formation which dogs his regime. It is equally interesting that what is unsaid gives more indications about what really is happening. DAILY TRUST of Monday, September 8, 2008, carried a front page report, that quoted John Odey, the Information Minister, as denying that there was a plot to remove Yar’adua form office “on the grounds of incapacity because of ill health”. But why would you deny a plot that does not exit, especially at a time, when there are whisperings that the Vice President, Jonathan Goodluck, has begun to secretly shop for a possible vice president from the North, in case he eventually takes over from his boss? It is also instructive that Chief Tony Anenih has wighted in on the matter of speculations about President Yar’adua’s ill health and his capacity to continue to runt the country.
Chief Tony Anenih has been mentioned by one of the newspapers as having been caught in the eye of the storm of some of the meetings taking place at very high political levels. THIS DAY newspaper of Tuesday, September 10, 2008 even reported that the former chairman of the PDP’s Board of Trustees and Nigeria’s former fixer-in-chief, was likely to be quizzed by security agencies about such high wire political meetings. However, there is an interesting side to Chief Anenih’s intervention, in a piece which DAILY TRUST of Monday, September 8, 2008, published on its back page. In respect of the speculations about Yar’adua’s indisposition, Chief Anenih wrote that “what one expects of Nigerians older than Yar’adua…is to …pray for his quick recovery. Younger ones should also wish him the same. INSTEAD, THE CLAMOUR BY SOME OF THEM IS ON HOUW TO REPLACE THE PRESIDENT (emphasis mine)”. Who these “younger ones” are, Chief Tony Anenih did not expatiate in his piece, but he described ‘them’ as “demonstrating an obvious lack of patriotism”. Furthermore, he said that “THEY ARE NOTHING BUT POLITICAL RASCALS SEEKING FOR THE QUICKEST WAY TO SEIZE POWER (emphasis are mine) ”.
Are there things that the good Chief Tony Anenih knows but are hidden from the ordinary citizen? Chief Anenih has the distinction of having been centrally placed at the heart of some of the most engaging political battles in our country, starting from when he was at the head of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) in 1983; the incumbent Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) was defeated in the 1983 elections. Chief Anenih headed the SDP, which traded away the mandate of its own presidential candidate, Chief Moshood Abiola. It is also true that Chief Anenih was the main enforcer of the intentions of General Obsanjo, until they fell apart, over a year ago. With such a rich political record, there is a lot Nigerians can learn from the good chief, he should please expose the “younger ones”, those “political rascals seeking for the quickes way to seize power”. This is because in his words, they were “demonstrating an obvious lack of patriotism”, and a plan to “SEIZE POWER” can also be treasonable.
Could it be that the clique of the “younger ones” has become too strong, in relation to the influence that they wield with President Yar’adua? Or is Chief Tony Anenih and whatever tendency he represents now, seeking toerode the influences of the “younger ones”? politics, as the authoritative allocation of values, as we read in Political Science, does not operate smoothly. It is a cloak and dagger world, and it has elements of smoke-filled, dark recesses, where conspiracies are hatched for execution. Of cours, the citizen is the loser in this political setting. The intrigues come thick and fast, when the political leader gives room for suspicion, that he might become incapacitated due to infirmities of health. This is the classical scenario, which Malam Umaru Yar’adua ill-health has given rise to in Nigeria.
My suspicion is that Chief Tony Anenih is throwing pebbles at the political influence which a former and serving governor have in the Yar’adua administration. The perception that “they are nothing but political rascals, seeking for the quickest way to seize power”, speaks volumes about the inter-clique rivalries and the threat which these “younger ones” have become to other tendencies within the ruling party and the regime. I believe that President Yar’adua, at the centre of all the inter-clique scheming, will hold firmly to the political long knife and will willingly cut down all political enemies , as he did in Katsina. He will use the power of incumbency to co-opt and neutralize various cliques, in order to sustain his position. This includes drawing closer to the Obasanjo cliques, represented by David Mark, the Senate President, to shore up positions and to balance the influence and ambitions of Chief Tony Anenih’s “younger ones”. But for as long as the president’a health continues to be a source of worry, then the cliques will not dissolve; the intrigues will come thick and fast; the long knives will be held in the ready and the fate of our nation will continue to hand in the balance!
