abdulraheem
My writing did not grace this page last week, because I had spent the previous week in London. I had traveled to the British Capital for a strictly private family matter, and had hoped that it would be an opportunity to play ostrich and forget at least for that short period, the problems of Nigerian existence. But it seemed that I was deluding myself, because Nigerian problems had a presence as suffocating as they have been at home. I had been traveling on a bus one evening along with my very restive twins, who did not apparently like the experience of being strapped into their bogey and were wailing away their resistance, when a text message arrived on my telephone that the FBI had raided Atiku Abubakar’s house in the United States. The source of the text was a friend at the BBC World Service. A few days into my visit, I had begun to have discussions with a lot of my Nigerian compatriots who live in London. They have the advantage of access to the internet, can read a variety of Nigerian newspapers and various websites dedicated to debating the contemporary issues of the Nigerian situation. These guys seem so knowledgeable about the happenings at home; they seem very worried too. Let us take Sunday Ojo as an example; he has been my friend for many years; moved to London sometimes in the 1990s. He seemed to have summed up the ambiguity of existence that confronts the Nigerian ‘expat’, during one of our discussions about the reality of existence in Nigeria today. Ojo said that life in Europe is not exactly a bed of roses, but the condition in Nigeria is also not attractive for the ‘expat’ longing to abandon existence abroad. So without his saying so in as many words, I could surmise that it must be a most frustrating experience to live in that interface between hope and despair. I also had a very late lunch with Chief Sunday Awoniyi in London. As usual, the experience was a most fulfilling tour-de-force; I got a most illuminating insight into the inner goings on, the intrigues, the cut-throat propensities as well as acts of genuine generosities that have littered the contemporary history of Nigeria. It was the following day that the text message arrived, and I think a day later, we also received the report of Obasanjo’s vituperations on television, in response to his Vice President’s newspaper interview. So when I called up Chief Awoniyi the following day, we explored the potential consequence of the bust-up between Obasanjo and Atiku, and I recollect, that he had summarized that a point of no return seemed to have been arrived at in the troubled relationship between the two highest office holders in Nigeria. So in the past week or so, I have turned around in my head a lot of ideas about how best to make a sense of the event that was unfolding in Nigeria, and what the consequences might be for the democratic process as well as the challenges that face genuine patriots in our country. Most commentators have pointed to the fact that at the base of the unfolding crisis is the hidden agenda to extend the tenure of Obasanjo beyond 2007. DAILY TRUST had done an exclusive investigative piece as our lead story of Monday, August 22, 2005. The nut and bolt of that report, had affirmed that a multi-faceted template has been constructed to achieve the elongation of Obasanjo’s tenure beyond 2007. The underlining theme of the project is STABILITY AND CONTINUITY. Those working on it, say that it is only if there are a persistence of tenure that a development breakthrough can be achieved. They cite as examples the experience of Lee Kwan Yew in Singapore, a man whose name Obasanjo constantly drops as his friend, and that of Mahathir Muhammad in Malaysia. As Adagbo Onoja rightly pointed out in his recent piece on the process, the Obasanjo strategists fail to understand the world historical process and conjunctural balance of forces that provided a favourable backdrop for the Singapore experience. But a sense of history is not of interest to those conspiratorially cooking up the Obasanjo formula. Femi Fani Kayode pointed away from the political actors around Obasanjo to the members of his crony capitalist buccaneers, as the most persistent schemers for the tenure
elongation project. In the main, these are the elements who have made a lot of money from the dubious privatization process of the Obasanjo regime; those who consistently get customs waivers and thus ensure massive loss of revenue by the Nigerian state and the members of the oil importation lobby, who hold the Nigerian nation by the scruff of its neck, while imposing a regime of fuel price hikes on the economy, along with the deepening of the poverty of the Nigerian people. The elements that make up Obasanjo’s inner circle of crony capitalists have become fabulously rich over the past six years; they are not fools either, and they know that their wealth is tied to the injustice of Obasanjo’s economic policies. The only guarantee for their continued prosperity or even the retention of the advantage they have in the economic stakes is the assurance of Obasanjo’s continued stay as Nigerian President beyond 2007. This is the reason why members of the Obasanjo crony capitalist class have actually been the most enthusiastic promoters of his third term; or in fact if they have their way, his life presidency. Of course, it is not only the bandit capitalists who dream of a perpetual Obasanjo presidency. The elements within the political and bureaucratic inner circle also have an objective interest in a prolonged/perpetual stay in power of their principal. Professor Julius Ihonvbare gave an interview the other day to SUNDAY VANGUARD newspaper. Julius was queried as to why the presidency won’t stop campaigners for a third term if Obasanjo was truly going to vacate office in 2007. Hiding behind a sandbag of Aesopian language, he said that it was their democratic right to make whatever agitation they chose and Aso Villa was not in the business of curtailing the democratic rights of people. Besides, he further pointed out, that Obasanjo was constitutionally bound to go in 2007. Julius however added a sting, one which reveals a strand of the hidden agenda of the regime, when he said that Nigerians know who to appeal to for constitutional change, if they believe that Obasanjo is doing well and they want him to stay longer in power. The agenda includes a scenario of mobilizing state governors to come on board the third term train; they would then assist in the fast-track amendment of the constitution, through maximum pressure on the pliant state houses of assembly. But in tune with his propensity for using and dumping people, Obasanjo would eventually ensure that most of the governors are then dropped from the third term gravy train, after he has exploited their greed for an extended stay in power. In reality, he believes he is the only one worthy of an extended tenure in office any way. A problematic element of the agenda has always been what to do with Atiku Abubakar. He has clearly become surplus to requirement, but the Obasanjo group are not sure they have sufficiently weakened him, nor have they routed his political base, despite Obasanjo’s conquest of the PDP machinery. So a group argued that he should be deceptively carried along until the time that they might have totally isolated him for a final disgraceful routing. But I think they have underrated Atiku’s own political acumen. It was in response to the machinations of Obasanjo’s group, that Atiku’s recent footwork must be appreciated. His statements that have been widely quoted about election rigging, the legitimacy of opposition, and the rejection of a militarist centralization of power, all point negatively at Obasanjo. The popular tenor that Atiku’s recent posture struck in the country has raffled Obasanjo so badly, that he went on television the other day, revealing ever more boldly, his most unpresidential manners, for all to see. Clearly, Nigeria has reached a cross road in its present democratic journey. The question is what is the task that faces the patriotic democrats today? Nigeria is in danger of a possible subversion of its democratic aspiration by the Obasanjo group. This rootless group of bureaucrats, bandit capitalists and desperate politicians are in cahoots to bend the rules, in order to perpetuate Obasanjo in office beyond 2007. Obasanjo is part of this process, despite the unconvincing affirmations that he would leave in 2007. Obasanjo is trapped within his delusions of being Nigeria’s ‘great’ leader and he also wants to be the longest reigning (and richest!) leader ever. He wants to preside over the consolidation of the economic disaster he has visited upon Nigeria; an economic policy that has strengthened the Yoruba bourgeoisie and his crony capitalists. But he is also mortally afraid, of what will happen to his policies and person if he vacates power. Why is Obasanjo mortally scared of the future? He has presided over the unconstitutional privatization program; has spent Nigerian monies without recourse to the necessary lawfulness; he has never faithfully implemented annual budgets; Obasanjo has operated our oil accounts in a voodoo manner and despite declamations, has presided over a most corrupt regime that won’t stand any serious scrutiny by a patriotic government in the future. Obasanjo has also run the most unpopular and anti-people regime in the recent history of Nigeria. This is the background actually why he would rather he stayed there forever. The patriotic democrats must work to build a national platform that would be inclusive and dedicated to the achievement of a set of broad objectives. What is required now is the type of platform deployed against the Abacha dictatorship. The main objective is to ensure that Obasanjo’s nightmare reign is terminated on schedule by May 2007. It is important that the man leaves the scene, in order for Nigeria to regain the momentum that can assist us to pick the pieces of a wounded democratic process. Thereafter, a probe of the regime must be instituted as part of a deliberate effort to reverse many of the anti- people decisions, especially in the economic realm. Obasanjo and his cohorts must be made to vomit all the unconstitutionally appropriated assets that belong to the Nigerian people, off-loaded in the dubious privatization program of his very cruel regime. This is where Atiku Abubakar has to really asses his own options. If Atiku’s concern is to assist the consolidation of the democratic process, to ensure that it is not subverted by Obasanjo’s third term agenda, then he must come on board with the Nigerian people. There are serious implications for him, if he chooses such a route. They include implications for his ambition to become president as well as implications for the economic policies of a regime that he has been number two, and policies that he has been so closely identified with! Nigeria has a crisis presidency on its hands, within which the long daggers of conspiracy, treachery and blackmail have been drawn for a battle of a lifetime. On the one hand is the vindictive and unforgiving President Obasanjo, whose hidden agenda has been brought out naked in the market square revealing an unflattering ugliness and one that is a danger to Nigeria’s democracy. On the other hand is a wounded, but ambitious Vice President Atiku Abubakar, whose bold statements in recent times, objectively line him up behind the struggle against the tyrannical third term agenda of Obasanjo. Atiku should also ensure he never makes the mistake of abandoning the PDP which is what the Obasanjo group would prefer. He should stay within to fight and repossess the party from the usurpers. It is important for all patriots and democrats to work together to defeat tyranny and help save democracy.
